Uncertainty

Current Influences on Currency in Early 2017 Market Updates

By Premier FX Account Director Gary Owen

Currency exchange rates are notoriously difficult to predict, especially in the short term. This has been especially the case in the first part of 2017 when there has been a high degree of volatility in major currencies due to factors such as Brexit, EU political concerns, the ‘Trump Factor’, and the global interest rate environment.

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Premier FX Currency – 20 March 2017 Market Updates

And so the process begins…

Brexit, that is. It looks like by the end of March, the UK will formally start proceedings to leave the European Union. Naturally, we all knew this would happen as the government have been talking about it for a while and also have mentioned this timescale on numerous occasions. However, all we are concerned about is what it is going to do to the currency.

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Premier FX Currency Forecast – 13 March 2017 Market Updates

Uncertainty…

That is what is causing a movement down in the Pound, especially against the Euro.  We moved down to the first target level around 1.14 last week with no real recovery.  The uncertainty is mainly, of course, around good old Brexit.  Economic figures are not showing up that well and the reason cited for this is the uncertainty over leaving Europe.

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Premier FX Currency Forecast – 06 March 2017 Market Updates

What to budget for…

The UK is on Wednesday of this week. What can we expect? Well, to be honest who really knows?  In terms of the Pound, we are already experiencing some weakness because of slightly negative economic figures in the production sector.  Overall, the pound still looks weak, but as we say most weeks now the fall may be fairly slow and tinged with the odd reversal every now and again.

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Pound Volatility

Premier FX Currency Forecast – 27 February 2017 Market Updates

Volatility is still the key…

The markets have been volatile. Away from STG/EUR, the other major currencies have moved quite a lot. STG/USD is still hovering above 1.24; but, it seems, if we break that support we will move down through 1.20. If this does happen and EUR/USD moves up or stays steady, then this will cause STG/EUR to move lower, towards 1.14 and maybe beyond.

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Premier FX Currency Forecast – 20 February 2017 Market Updates

Where to now for the pound?…

Not the first time we have used that title, but that really is the question at the moment.  As much as we don’t like to keep saying it, the “Brexit” word and how it’s done and when it’s done, and what people say and how they say it, is going to play a part.  Europe is not the steady ship we once thought it was, or they once thought it was.  So it’s really…what is to give first?

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USD dollar yellen trump,

Political Risk? Keeping an Eye on the USD Market Updates

By Premier FX Account Director Gary Owen

Whilst the US$ remains relatively robust and has the potential to rise further, there may be some clouds on the horizon.

This week, Federal Reserve Bank officials have been giving economic testimony before Congress. Chair, Janet Yellen, did not provide any specific forecast on the timing of the central bank’s next rate hike, but the markets are currently estimated to be pricing in a 25% probability of this happening in March.

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Euro QEII Pound

Premier FX Currency Forecast – 13 February 2017 Market Updates

Lots of talking, but no real action…

That’s something that seems to happen a lot in any walk of life. Anyway, the talking the past few weeks has been about Brexit, and the timing of the exit and how it is going to be done. There are many differing opinions, some are wise and some otherwise! This has meant a bit of volatility for the pound. At one time, we looked like we may revisit the lows again until we got a nice bounce back up to the mid 1.17s.

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